- ATD Fourth World

Our commitment to the fight against persistent poverty takes place against the backdrop of a constantly evolving society.  Change brings about new opportunities, but it also brings risks and obstacles which we must take into account.

Joseph Wresinski taught that we must never stop asking ourselves certain questions: what are the living conditions being imposed on the poorest?  What are their aspirations?  Which opportunities are important to grasp, in order to be able to develop, with them, a partnership that will guarantee the equality and dignity of every person?

We need to be trying to understand, with the assistance of other people asking themselves similar questions about European and Global development, what signs of hope there are, and what challenges we must address?  We also need to share our individual perception of what is happening around us, and our understanding of developments in the world.

Committed to striving, alongside those experiencing persistent poverty, for a world where neither poverty nor exclusion exist, we must acquire together an understanding of the precursors of our future, reference points which can usefully guide our actions.  It is in this sense, then, that we are currently engaged in modelling possible futures, and of which this summary provides an overview.

Over the last few months, we have been in dialogue with people  willing to share their questions and preoccupations on the development of Europe. What did we learn from this?

A Worskshop with Hugues de Jouvenel (Director of 'Futuribles'), 3 March 2000, Paris

Hugues de Jouvenel (general manager of the group “Futuribles”) explained that the process of forecasting consists of anticipating in order to act in favour of a freely debated desirable future. The forecasting or modelling process is based on the idea that the future is not predetermined: it is built by people who actively participate in society. The two basic questions in the process are: what might happen (anticipation) ? and what can we do (room for manoeuvre, strategies) ?

The future as a domain of freedom. There are several possible futures, but what might happen is strongly influenced by the heritage of the past: it is important to identify the key trends (the ageing population of Europe, new technology development etc.) and the main determining factors. However no one knows for sure what the future will be.

The future as a domain of power. As with freedom, power is very unequally distributed, but everybody has some control over his life. There is always “room for manoeuvre”, all the more so if the situation is not urgent and if we have been able to “anticipate” and prepare.

The future as a domain of free will. “Only he who knows where he's going can take advantage of a favourable wind”. It's essential to have a clear vision of what is a desirable and realistic future.

To sum up, we are like the navigator of boat: we should anticipate what will happen around us (study the wind, the reefs, the other navigators' movements etc.), and act to achieve our objective, with our pilot's toolkit (forward planning).

The five key steps in the forecasting or modelling process are:

1. Problem definition and choice of the scope (e.g. precariousness and extreme poverty in 2010);
2. Identification of the key variables and their relationships;
3. Data collection and hypotheses construction;
4. Construction of possible futures, usually in scenario from;
5. Choice of strategies. 

The “exploratory” scenarios are built on the current key trends at work and various different theories of how the situation might evolve. The “strategic” or “normative” scenarios are based on reasonable medium term objectives (e.g. the eradication of extreme poverty in Europe within 20 years) and on looking for methods to achieve them. The two approaches are complementary, but distinct in their logic.

A full account of this meeting with Hugues de Jouvenel  is available on request from the Institute, Pierrelaye (in French).

The European Commission's Forward Studies Unit was founded in 1989 and placed under the direct responsibility of the Commission's president, has elaborated five “exploratory” scenarios which, however, contradict each other. Their objective is to provide plausible images of Europe in 2010. Here is a brief presentation of these scenarios:

Scenario 1: “Triumph of the markets”: This scenario is characterised by the growing reign of economic liberalism in a global market. The expansion of the Union to other countries is accelerating, the role of the state is reducing, the employment market is deregulated, the public services privatised. The  creation of enterprises is prospering,  wealth and poverty are growing, as well as individualism, scepticism towards politics and short term worries.

Scenario 2: “Hundred flowers”.  This scenario is marked by the paralysis and corruption of big public and private institutions. A severe confidence crisis takes hold of society, direct action is spreading and Europeans are withdrawing to the micro local level. The informal economy is developing, local initiatives multiply without a logical unity and there is a growth in inequality. The role of the regions and of associations is accentuated. European institutions lose their legitimacy and become isolated. The expansion of the European Union is blocked.

Scenario 3: “Shared responsibilities”. This scenario is based on an ambitious reform of the public sector leading to a renewed social and economic policy, facilitating the responsibility of new actors (N.G.O., social enterprises...). Grass roots groups are expressing themselves and drive development. Job creation is becoming widespread and unemployment is dropping. A better representation of the poor population permits the reform of the right to work and a strengthening of social security. Europe is expanding to the East and defends an original model of development, in which, however, poverty remains at a high level.

Scenario 4: “The societies of creation”: The starting point of this scenario is the hypothesis of a people's revolt across Europe in response to austere budgetary programmes. The protection of the environment and human development are placed back at the centre of the economy. Fiscal and accounting systems are reformed. Europe moves back to a level of full activity and to a better social cohesion. However the expansion in the East is at a stand still. Absorbed by her own reforms, Europe is not able to develop a coherent foreign policy.

Scenario 5: “Turbulent neighbourhoods”: This scenario describes a Europe threatened by expanding wars in the neighbouring states, leading to a massive development of clandestine immigration. Terrorist acts are multiplying. The development of tensions and conflicts requires the creation of a European Council entirely preoccupied by security and defence. The role of the biggest member countries is growing whilst that of the European Union weakens. The European public is anxious, passive and is becoming more and more intolerant. Unemployment and social exclusion are becoming more serious, the necessary reforms are postponed to better days.

On May 19th, 2000, about 20 European employees and the ATD Fourth World Delegation to the EU made the following suggestions:

"The commitment made by the European Council in Lisbon, to move towards the eradication of poverty in Europe joins ATD Fourth World's goal which is the eradication of extreme poverty. With this in mind, we can question what are the medium term objectives Europe should have, in order to put into action a priority policy of combating precariousness and poverty. Could the Forward Studies Unit develop normative scenarios, taking the eradication of extreme poverty in Europe of 2010 as an objective, and exploring the different paths which could lead to this endpoint, taking the present situation as a foundation ? Such a study would have the merit of clarifying the requirements which would have to be fulfilled so that the objective would not remain just a pious wish. It would be necessary to clarify several elements: which are the favourable and unfavourable factors in the European movement. Who do we need to call upon ? What are the pertinent indicators of poverty?  If such a project is started, how are the competencies to be divided between the European, national, regional and local levels ?"

A more detailed account of this meeting is available on request from the Institute, Pierrelaye (in French).

Contribution of Pierre de Charentenay (Director of the Catholic Office of Information and Initiative for Europe) at the ATD Quart Monde European Session, January 2000, Heerlen.

Pierre de Charentenay (director of the Catholic Office of Information and Initiative for Europe) has outlined 5 crucial areas of debate to which Europeans should be particularly attentive:

- Human rights: What will the content of the fundamental rights' Charter be, stipulated  by the European Union and which should be adopted in Nice in December 2000 ? Will the values of ”brotherhood” and ”human dignity” and the rights of a base community such as the rights of the family be inscribed ?
The construction of the European Union: Which social model do we want to ensure ? Do we want and can we promote universal social security, where even the unemployed are integrated, people on the edge of their rights, i.e. the illegal ?
-  The growth of wealth and poverty: What to do we do, faced with growing inequality ?
What kind of immigration policy should be adopted ?
- The reunification of Europe: what means are to be adopted in order to develop the informal contacts with the states of Eastern Europe ?
- Globalisation: How do we find a way for Europe to develop, to master productivity and the questions relating to unemployment ?

Cf. article in the Revue Quart Monde “Globalisation and Poverty” September 2000 (in French)

Contribution of the Movement's Research Institute to the International Conference “Statistics, Development and Human  Rights” to be held at Montreux (Switzerland) from 4-8 September 2000

The contribution will be based on the Fourth World People's University and on the work done in Britain in 1998, by three associations: ATD Fourth World, Oxfam Solidarity and Church Action on Poverty. Françoise Coré, an ATD friend, will explain the need to develop a participatory  approach, associating the poorest people themselves with university professors, and social partners. Together they can define what poverty is, how to measure it, and thus determine the indicators of the truly shared fight against it. This conjunction of knowledge assumes certain basic conditions: to establish relations of confidence and respect, to progress at the pace of the slowest people, to respect each person's contribution, to offer appropriate training...

Cf. article to come in the Revue Quart Monde “Globalisation and Poverty” September 2000 (in French)

Institute of Research and Training
ATD Fourth World - 95480 Pierrelaye, France
Email: institut@atd-quartmonde.org